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Working papers: Latest Research
New entries as of April 25, 2017
Anabel González (Senior Director, Global Practice on Trade and Competitiveness, World Bank Group)
April 24, 2017
In the latter part of the 20th century, trade integration helped drive economic growth in advanced and developing countries, lifting millions out of poverty. Since the early 2000s, however, a slowdown in the pace of trade reform, a post-crisis uptick in protectionism, and risk of further reversals are taking a toll on trade, productivity and income growth. In this context, regional integration is increasingly seen as a powerful driver of growth and new opportunities. The long-term trend towards regional integration is clear: in the last two decades there has been steady progress towards more integrated regional economies in almost every part of the world.
Gaston Gelos y Jay Surti
April 21, 2017
¿Qué pasa si las economías avanzadas permanecen atascadas en un bache duradero caracterizado por un crecimiento tenue, tasas de interés bajas, poblaciones en proceso de envejecimiento y productividad estancada? Japón ofrece un ejemplo del impacto en los bancos, y nuestro análisis indica que las empresas de seguros, los fondos de pensiones y los administradores de activos también podrían estar expuestos a consecuencias de gran alcance. Cabría decir que este escenario de malestar económico ya se ha materializado; después de todo, las tasas de interés y el crecimiento económico han estado en niveles bajos desde la crisis financiera de 2008. La pregunta es si el panorama posterior a la crisis representa una desaceleración temporal del ritmo de crecimiento al que hemos estado acostumbrados desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial, o si esto es lo que de ahora en adelante va a ser normal. Es cierto que en algunas economías avanzadas los rendimientos a largo plazo han aumentado últimamente, pero lo que nos enseñó la experiencia de Japón es que no podemos estar seguros de si el escape de la trampa de escaso crecimiento y tasas de interés bajas es algo que está a punto de suceder o si va a ser duradero.
Research Review: Moral Consequences of Becoming Unemployed
April 20, 2017
Understanding how becoming unemployed affects people’s preferences and values is important. According to the International Labor Organization, almost two-hundred million people were unemployed worldwide in 2015, over seventy millions of which were youth aged 15-24, an estimated 12.9 percent of the global youth population. The economic consequences of youth unemployment are severe and, in addition to the monetary costs, unemployment is associated with poor psychological and physical health.
Carmen Cifuentes and Óscar Perelló
April 19, 2017
A large amount of literature has been developed on the so-called “Resource Curse” hypothesis, which suggests that natural resource abundant countries tend to have slower growth rates than resource-poor countries (Sachs and Warner 1997, 2001). However, another branch of the literature rejects this theory and proposes that the long-run relationship between these variables is ambiguous, since it actually depends on institutional quality (Mehlum et al 2006; Tornell and Lane 1999). This line of thought argues that institutions could encourage private agents to deviate their inputs to unproductive rent-seeking activities, which might counteract the contribution of resource rents if the institutional framework is not strong enough. We should expect this appropriation process to be particularly relevant for mining commodities during the 2000’s boom, as they have been pointed out as the most susceptible to rent-seeking issues (Boschini et al 2007, 2012). This point, in addition to the fact that mining commodities seem to be the most affected product group by China’s demand shifts, which was one of the main factors stimulating the 2000’s commodity boom (Jenkins, 2011), make mining countries a particularly interesting case of study.
Working papers: Latest Research
New entries as of April 18, 2017
Bas Burger (President, BT in the Americas)
April 17, 2017
The more connected people are, the more opportunity and access they will have to continuous learning, helping them develop the skills needed to be more productive, happier and better off. Being connected is good for people, and it’s good for the economy. Young children in many parts of the world grow up surrounded by technology. They can often scroll before they can walk. Their world is always connected. At their fingertips is a world that opens up opportunities – education, health, jobs and a sense of community. But two-thirds of people living in Latin America and the Caribbean have no access to mobile broadband, either through a lack of coverage, cost or skills. But there are innovative ways to bridge that gap in access. From banks on boats to lucky trucks and public service kiosks, here are some of the ways people across Latin America are being empowered to build successful, sustainable communities for the future.
Carola Pessino and Eduardo Cavallo
April 14, 2017
Taxation and savings are inextricably linked. While taxation puts more money in the government’s hands, it also decreases private savings by leaving people and firms with less income to save, invest, and grow the economy. Despite this clear relationship, the negative impact of taxation on private savings is often the blind spot when policymakers tackle tax reform in Latin America and the Caribbean. Policymakers may consider whether a new tax is progressive or regressive. They may assess how much revenue the tax can raise and whether it might affect certain sectors of the economy over others. But they tend to overlook its impact on savings.
Research Review: Land titling deregularization
April 13, 2017
The literature on economic development underscores the significance of well-defined property rights. Property rights help people to accrue the benefits of their own productive efforts. In fact, an extensive body of empirical literature confirms that land titling gives rise to a wide range of positive effects, including significant increases in property value, household investment and agricultural productivity, among others.